Model analysis of observed and predicted climate changes of groundwater recharge in the basin of a small river
https://doi.org/10.33623/0579-9406-2019-3-78-86
Abstract
The analysis of the connection of groundwater recharge in the basin of a small river with the current and expected climatic changes in the European territory of Russia is carried out using the catchment basin of Zhizdra river Kaluga region as an example. The analysis was based on the modeling of the processes of transformation of moisture on the earth surface and moisture transfer in the aeration zone. The results of global climate predictions for five models of the general circulation of the atmosphere and ocean (GCM) from the CMI5 family were applied for the forecast in the second half of the 21st century using the LARSWG5 forecast weather conditions generator. The simulation results show that despite the fact that all the GCM used predict a warming in the region at 2–6 ᵒC, the difference in the predicted recharge is still significantly large, which is associated with the difference in the predicted dryness index.
About the Authors
S. P. Pozdniakov
Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Faculty of Geology. 119991, Moscow, GSP-1, Leninskiye Gory, 1
Russian Federation
Faculty of Geology. 119991, Moscow, GSP-1, Leninskiye Gory, 1
S. O. Grinevsky
Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Faculty of Geology. 119991, Moscow, GSP-1, Leninskiye Gory, 1
Russian Federation
Faculty of Geology. 119991, Moscow, GSP-1, Leninskiye Gory, 1
E. A. Dediulina
Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Faculty of Geology. 119991, Moscow, GSP-1, Leninskiye Gory, 1
Russian Federation
Faculty of Geology. 119991, Moscow, GSP-1, Leninskiye Gory, 1
V. N. Samartsev
Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Faculty of Geology. 119991, Moscow, GSP-1, Leninskiye Gory, 1
Russian Federation
Faculty of Geology. 119991, Moscow, GSP-1, Leninskiye Gory, 1
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For citations:
Pozdniakov S.P., Grinevsky S.O., Dediulina E.A., Samartsev V.N. Model analysis of observed and predicted climate changes of groundwater recharge in the basin of a small river. Moscow University Bulletin. Series 4. Geology. 2019;(3):78-86. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.33623/0579-9406-2019-3-78-86
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